Market Update: Euro, Dollar, and Commodities in Focus

Stay informed on market trends—Daily Market Update: Euro, Dollar, Commodities, and European central bank decisions.

Asia Session Recap

The Asian trading session unfolded as anticipated, featuring a relatively subdued market. The Dollar Index (DXY) trended lower to around 103.50, and gold prices briefly touched $1,985/oz before a slight pullback. Crude oil prices strengthened after an initial gap down at the opening, but they might encounter resistance around the $77.00 per barrel region.

Implications for Europe & US Sessions

Scheduled to speak at the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture in England, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey may influence the direction of the Pound with his remarks later today. With the Pound having touched 1.2500 last week, it could attempt to surpass this threshold again.

Daily Market Update: Euro, Dollar, and Commodities in Focus

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

DXY Expectations Today

As the new trading week begins with a sparse calendar, the dollar’s demand is diminishing following last week’s sharp decline, and it is likely to remain under pressure today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remains unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%.
• The Committee aims for maximum employment and a 2.0% inflation rate in the long run.
• Scheduled for December 12-13, 2023, the next meeting is on the horizon.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

Gold Expectations Today

With a relatively empty calendar marking the start of the new week and a weakened demand for the dollar, there is an anticipation that gold prices will face continued pressure. A weaker dollar could, however, lead to a resurgence in gold prices.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key News Today

• RBA Gov Bullock Speaks (11:00 pm GMT).

AUD Expectations Today

RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s participation in a panel discussion on the “State of the Economy” could impact the Australian Dollar. Ahead of the debate, the Aussie might rise beyond 0.6550 today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The RBA increased the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35%.
• Inflation in Australia has peaked but remains high.
• The next meeting is on December 5, 2023.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key News Today

No major news events.

NZD Expectations Today

Anticipated to maintain its elevated position throughout the day, the Kiwi exhibited strength this morning, surpassing the 0.6000 threshold.

Central Bank Highlights

• The OCR remains unchanged at 5.50% for the third consecutive meeting.
• Expectations are that the Kiwi economy will continue its moderate recovery.
• The next meeting is on November 29, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

JPY Expectations Today

The Japanese Yen received strong inflows last week, leading to USD/JPY falling below 150. Downward pressure persists, and the currency pair will likely drift lower today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The Bank of Japan continues with QQE with Yield Curve Control.
• There are expectations for Japan’s economy to experience a moderate recovery.
• The next meeting is on December 19, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

EUR Expectations Today

The Euro broke above 1.0900 last week and is building on bullish momentum as markets reopen. With declining demand for the dollar, the Euro is likely to remain elevated today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged.
• Expectations indicate that inflation will remain high, with intense domestic price pressures persisting.
• The next meeting is on December 14, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

CHF Expectations Today

The Swiss Franc experienced strong inflows last week, causing USD/CHF to fall below 0.8900. Downward pressure persists, and the currency pair will likely drift lower today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The SNB unexpectedly kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in September.
• The inflation forecasts remain unchanged, and analysts predict modest growth.
• The next meeting is on December 14, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key News Today

• BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (6:45 pm GMT).

GBP Expectations Today

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech could influence the Pound’s direction. After briefly touching 1.2500 last week, the Pound might make another attempt to climb past this threshold today.

Central Bank Highlights

• The MPC voted 6-to-3 to maintain the Official Bank Rate at 5.25%.
• There is an expectation for CPI inflation to experience a sharp fall.
• The next meeting is on December 14, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key News Today

• No major news events.

CAD Expectations Today

Due to declining demand for the greenback, USD/CAD will likely remain under pressure today, with the potential to slide below 1.3700.

Central Bank Highlights

• The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0%.
• Analysts lowered Canada’s economic growth forecast for 2023 to 1.2%.
• The next meeting is on December 6, 2023.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key News Today

• No major news events.

Oil Expectations Today

Crude oil prices rebounded last Friday, trading above $76.00 per barrel this morning. Prices could retrace higher today before macro-fundamentals again exert downward pressure on this commodity.

Subsequent 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

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