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Market Watch: RBA Minutes Impact on Currency and Commodity

RBA minutes impact

RBA minutes reveal a neutral stance and impact on markets. Key events ahead are JOLTS Job Openings and a speech by Fed’s Mester.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its minutes for the monetary policy meeting held on March 20th, indicating a neutral stance on interest rates, which was in line with market expectations—the minutes revealed that the board members unanimously agreed to keep the cash rate on hold. However, they acknowledged the difficulty in predicting future changes to the cash rate, refraining from ruling in or out any adjustments.

The minutes presented a more balanced view than the RBA’s previous statement, leading to a climb in the Australian dollar towards the 0.6500 threshold following their release. This indicates that investors perceived the RBA’s stance as less dovish than anticipated.

Market Watch: RBA Minutes Impact on Currency and Commodity

Impact on Europe & US Sessions

In the upcoming sessions, investors will closely monitor two key events:

  • JOLTS Job Openings: The stability in job openings over recent months signals potential saturation in the labor market. If February’s reading exceeds the estimated 8.76 million, it could act as a bullish catalyst for the US dollar, reflecting more robust economic conditions.
  • Speech by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester: President Mester’s remarks on the economic outlook, particularly in light of recent inflation data, could influence market sentiment. Any indication against premature interest rate cuts may keep the dollar elevated.

Market Outlook for Major Currencies

  • USD (DXY):

Bias Next 24 Hours: Weak, Bullish

  • Gold (XAU):

Next 24 Hours Bias: Weak Bearish

  • AUD:

Bias towards the next 24 hours: Medium Bullish

  • NZD:

Next 24 Hours Bias: Medium Bearish

  • JPY:

The bias for the next 24 hours leans towards being weakly bullish.

  • EUR:

Next 24 Hours Bias: Medium Bearish

  • CHF:

The bias for the next 24 hours leans towards a medium bullish sentiment.

  • GBP:

Next 24 Hours Bias: Weak Bearish

  • CAD:

Next 24 Hours Bias: Medium Bullish

Key Events Ahead

  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the region’s economic health.
  • API Crude Oil Stocks: If the API report on crude oil inventories reports a larger-than-expected drawdown, it will significantly impact oil prices.

As markets digest the RBA minutes and await upcoming events, we expect volatility in currency and commodity markets. Investors will closely watch for shifts in central bank policies and economic indicators to navigate their positions accordingly.

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