USD/JPY outlook: Will NFP data impact rates or prompt BoJ intervention? Yen’s market moves and key factors shaping its trajectory.
The USD/JPY pair continues to hover near the 150.00 mark, a level that has caught the attention of both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The focal point of this anticipation is the upcoming US Jobs Report (NFP). This monthly event traditionally injects volatility into the markets as it offers crucial insights into the strength of the US economy. The data disclosed in the report plays a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
USD/JPY: NFP Impact- BoJ Intervention?
Market observers are not the only ones closely monitoring the NFP release; the Bank of Japan is also on high alert, especially after unverified reports hinted at their potential intervention in the foreign exchange markets when the USD/JPY touched the critical 150.00 level. The Japanese central bank defends the Yen when the exchange rate touches this widely-regarded threshold. Although the pair dipped briefly following these reports, it swiftly climbed back to the 149 level as demand for the US dollar increased. USD/JPY trades just below 149 in anticipation of the forthcoming US employment data.
Analysts predict the addition of 170,000 new jobs in September, a decrease from the 187,000 recorded in August. Simultaneously, experts anticipate a 0.1% decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.7% and a 0.1% to 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Should the actual figures fall below these expectations or if there are significant downward revisions to the August data, the US dollar is likely to weaken, consequently pulling USD/JPY down. Conversely, unexpected strength in the numbers could revive speculations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this year. This anticipation would drive the US dollar and USD/JPY. If the latter scenario unfolds and USD/JPY breaches the 150 level, the Bank of Japan might find it necessary to intervene. The outcome of this afternoon’s NFP release could define the trajectory of USD/JPY in the coming weeks.