BoC signals peak rates persistent price pressures. USD/CAD is bullish as sentiment favors the continuation of the upward trend.
In a significant policy shift, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept interest rates unchanged in its latest decision, conforming to widespread expectations. However, the central bank signaled a potential peak in interest rates through a nuanced change in language within its January 24th statement. Rather than focusing on whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive, The committee stressed the need to maintain current interest rates for a specific duration to achieve the desired return to the price target.
The statement underscored the enduring price pressures embedded in the core measure of inflation, citing the impact of elevated wages, shelter costs, and noteworthy increases in food prices as reflected in the headline inflation measure.
The USD/CAD currency pair is exhibiting a bullish bias following the recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar prompted by the BoC’s dovish stance. The bullish momentum remains intact as long as the price action stays above the critical level of 1.3503. The MACD indicator currently supports this positive outlook, showing no definitive signs of a reversal in momentum.
BoC Dovish: USD/CAD Bullish Momentum Holds Strong
The typical negative correlation between USD/CAD and WTI oil prices has diminished in the short to medium term, indicating that any rise in oil prices is less likely to strengthen the Canadian Dollar significantly.
Market activity is relatively subdued in the lead-up to the New York session, but momentum may return around the release of Q4 GDP data for the US later in the day. Immediate support for USD/CAD is identified at 1.3503, while resistance is anticipated at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, corresponding to the significant decline observed from 2021 to 2021 (1.351).
Retail Trader Sentiment and Contrarian View
Retail trader data reveals that 44.80% of traders are currently net-long on USD/CAD, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.23 to 1. Contrary to the prevailing sentiment, historical trends suggest that traders’ current net-short positioning may lead to a continued rise in USD/CAD prices.
Furthermore, traders are more net-short than the previous day and week. Considering the combination of the present sentiment and recent changes, a more substantial contrarian trading bias favoring a bullish USD/CAD outlook emerges.
As the market awaits the release of US GDP data, analysts anticipate a moderation to a more sustainable 2% level for Q4, down from the remarkable 4.9% observed in Q3. The evolving economic landscape and sentiment shifts suggest that the USD/CAD pair may soon witness continued upward movement.