In the wake of disappointing Chinese PMI figures, the Australian dollar (AUD) faces downward pressure against the US dollar (USD). This decline follows a slowdown in Chinese factory activity, affecting various commodities, including soft commodities, precious and base metals. Australia, a significant trading partner with China, is experiencing the negative repercussions of this economic slowdown.
Chinese PMI Impacts Australian Dollar – Expert Analysis
Chinese PMI’s drop below the 50 mark, indicating contraction, has led to concerns in the market. Despite missing forecasts, there is hope that efforts by the Chinese government to stimulate the economy might bring positive changes in the future. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor, Brad Jones, expressed uncertainty around interest rates due to factors such as war, global trade disruptions, cyberattacks, and climate change, which could increase rate volatility.
On a positive note for AUD, the housing credit Month-on-Month (MoM) figure reached yearly highs at 0.4%. However, sticky inflation keeps the RBA rate decision on November 7th leaning towards a 25 basis points rate hike.
Investor attention turns to the US CB consumer confidence print and labor cost data. These indicators are crucial in gauging the health of the US economy. Additionally, anticipation builds for Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, likely impacting currency markets significantly.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Price Trends
In the technical analysis, daily AUD/USD price action faces resistance around the longer-term trendline zone. Bulls are eyeing a confirmation close above this zone and the 50-day moving average to capitalize on a potential reversal.
Conversely, a descending triangle pattern with support at 0.6272 is developing, suggesting a bearish trend if prices decline further.
Key Resistance Levels:
50-day moving average
Trendline resistance at 0.6358
Key Support Levels:
Retail Trader Sentiment: Bullish Outlook for AUD/USD
Retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 73% holding long positions according to IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) data. This bullish sentiment among retail traders indicates a positive outlook despite the current challenges faced by the Australian dollar in the forex market.
As events unfold, market participants keenly await developments in the Chinese economy and upcoming US economic data, which will play pivotal roles in shaping the future trajectory of AUD/USD exchange rates.