Explore the latest Global Market Overview: Important Currency Trends and Economic Indicators with insights and more.
The flash Composite PMI for December revealed a positive trend in business activity. The US experienced its eleventh consecutive month of expansion, reaching a five-month high of 51.0, up from 50.7. The sharpest increase in new orders since July drove the surge in business activity, while the quickest pace of input prices rising since September intensified cost pressures.
The Dollar Index (DXY) faced a turbulent week in the currency market, hitting a low of 101.77 before rebounding to close at 102.59. The dollar’s most significant weekly fall in four weeks was accompanied by a 7.4% drop in Treasury bond yields, marking the second-largest decline of 2023.
Implications for the Asia Session
Despite downward pressures, the DXY may experience a temporary retracement before resuming its downturn, especially following remarks by New York Fed President John Williams, who emphasized that it’s too early to consider lowering borrowing costs.
Essential News and Expectations for Today
NAHB Housing Market Index (3:00 pm GMT)
Market observers anticipate a rebound in the Housing Market Index from 34 to 36 as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases December figures. Elevated mortgage rates, driven by high interest rates, pose challenges for the housing market. A stronger-than-expected reading could trigger renewed demand for the US dollar, potentially impacting gold prices.
Central Bank Notes: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remains unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%.
- The Committee aims for maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2.0% over the longer run.
- The Federal Reserve has scheduled its next meeting for January 30-31, 2024.
Global Market: Important Currency Trends and Economic Indicators
Gold (XAU) – Expectations
Anticipation surrounds the NAHB Housing Market Index figures, with a stronger-than-expected reading potentially creating downward pressures on gold prices during the US session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) – Market Overview
Expectations point to the Australian Dollar (AUD) maintaining its elevated position, surpassing the crucial 0.6700 threshold, with no significant news events in the spotlight. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the fifth pause in the last six board meetings.
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD) – Trade Balance Data
The Trade Balance figures for October indicate a decline in exports, and analysts expect New Zealand’s trade deficit to persist. However, the Kiwi Dollar could remain elevated for most of the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) – Market Dynamics
The Japanese Yen witnessed increased inflows last week, with USD/JPY facing downward pressure. The Bank of Japan’s commitment to Yield Curve Control remains unchanged, aiming for a 2.0% price stability target.
The Euro (EUR) – German Ifo Business Climate Index
The forecast for December anticipates an uptrend in the German Ifo Business Climate Index, projecting a value of 87.6. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained key interest rates at 4.50%, focusing on a data-dependent approach.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) – Recent Trends and Outlook
The Swiss Franc has gained significantly over the past six weeks, and while a retracement higher is possible today, the overall bias remains weak and bullish. SNB kept the policy rate at 1.75%.
The Pound (GBP) – Recent Movement and Forecast
The Pound experienced a pullback after nearing the 1.2800 level but could remain elevated if it surpasses 1.2700. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the Official Bank Rate at 5.25%.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) – Market Dynamics and Bank of Canada’s Stance
The Canadian dollar faced fluctuations as USD/CAD tumbled under 1.3400 amid a significant drop in demand for the US dollar. The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0%, focusing on quantitative tightening.
Oil – Crude Oil Prices and Market Sentiment
Crude oil prices experienced a weekly gain, influenced by Federal Reserve rate-cut hopes. With optimism around US rate cuts, WTI oil trades around $72.00 per barrel, and prices could rise today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
The overall sentiment is weak and bullish across various currencies and commodities, with market participants closely monitoring key economic indicators and central bank decisions.