Gold prices tumble as U.S. Treasury yields surge, sparking dollar rally. Investors reevaluate precious metal’s bullish outlook.
Gold prices dropped 1.25% on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields surged above 4.0%, strengthening the U.S. dollar against major currencies.
In a tumultuous turn of events on Tuesday, the gold market faced significant downward pressure as U.S. Treasury yields saw a notable rebound and the U.S. dollar asserted its dominance. The surge in 10-year bond rates, surpassing the psychological 4.0% mark, contributed to a rally in the U.S. dollar against its counterparts, impacting the precious metal’s prices and prompting a reassessment of its previously bullish outlook.
Gold Prices Tumble as Treasury Yields and Dollar Rally
The decline in gold prices, represented by XAU/USD, marked a shift from the consensus trade that had emerged after the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot in December. The unexpected surge in Treasury yields and the accompanying U.S. dollar rally raised concerns among investors, who had anticipated a more favorable environment for gold following the central bank’s change in direction.
The catalyst for the market movements on Tuesday was a reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as recent expectations shifted towards an extremely dovish stance. Comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, cautioning against hasty interest rate cuts until sustained lower inflation is evident, further influenced market dynamics, placing additional pressure on gold prices.
With the U.S. economy exhibiting resilience and disinflation progress stalling, the Federal Reserve appears significantly reluctant to ease its stance in the coming year. The potential complications that looser financial conditions could introduce on the path to price stability further contribute to the skepticism surrounding a dovish shift. This realization may prompt traders on Wall Street to unwind deep interest-rate cut bets, potentially bolstering the recovery of the U.S. dollar at the expense of gold.
Technical Analysis of Gold Prices
On Tuesday, gold experienced a sharp decline, erasing gains from the previous month and approaching the 50-day simple moving average, a crucial support indicator just above the $2,010 level. Bullish market participants must vigorously defend this technical floor, as failure could trigger further declines towards $1,990 and $1,975.
If a bullish reversal occurs, we anticipate resistance at $2,045-$2,050. While surpassing this ceiling could be challenging, a breakout might set the stage for a rally toward $2,085, the peak observed in late December. Moreover, Further strength could lead XAU/USD to retest its record highs.
Gold Market Sentiment
The most recent data reveals that 65% of clients hold net long gold positions. Furthermore, there has been a 12% surge in daily long positions, accompanied by a simultaneous 15% reduction in shorts, collectively contributing to a 1% shift in open interest. Shifting the focus to the weekly sentiment data, it discloses a substantial 20% increase in longs and a corresponding 20% decrease in shorts, resulting in a consequential 2% change in open interest. In summary, the overarching sentiment, as these statistics indicate, strongly suggests a bearish outlook for gold prices.