BoJ monetary policy sparks USD/JPY decline. Stay informed on the latest trends and market shifts after the policy announcement. The market’s eyes are on US data and the FOMC meeting.
In a move that kept the markets on their toes, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, holding short-term rates steady at -0.1% and keeping the 10-year bond yield around 0.0%. The decision led to a slip in USD/JPY prices, with implications for the currency pair’s short-term trajectory.
The BoJ, in its Quarterly Outlook, indicated a cautious optimism about the inflation outlook. Despite lowering their forecasts for core inflation from 2.8% to 2.4%, the central bank hinted at a potential shift towards tighter monetary conditions in the coming months. The BoJ expressed confidence that consumer inflation would gradually increase, citing a positive output gap, heightened medium- to long-term inflation expectations, and wage growth. However, they also acknowledged lingering uncertainties in future developments.
Market analysts are now eyeing the central bank’s April 26th meeting for potential rate adjustments, with current probabilities hovering around a 50/50 chance of a rate hike.
In the Wake of BoJ’s Monetary Policy, USD/JPY Decline
While the BoJ’s stance added some support to the Japanese Yen, the medium-term outlook for USD/JPY appears contingent on the performance of the US dollar, upcoming data releases, and global events. Moreover, traders are keenly awaiting the Core PCE report this Friday, a crucial event that will significantly influence market dynamics leading into next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Despite USD/JPY slipping from its recent multi-week high of 148.80 to test 147.00, the pair remains supported by key moving averages. Subsequently, a break below 146.00 could pave the way for a move to 145.00 or lower. Moreover, analysts note that the Yen’s strength and the US dollar’s weakness might push the pair towards 140.00. On the upside, surpassing 150.00 would likely require an above-forecast US inflation release or a hawkish stance from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference.
In retail trading, data reveals that 26.13% of traders are currently net-long, with a short-to-long ratio of 2.83 to 1. Although the number of net-long traders has increased by 7.17% compared to yesterday, it is 15.88% lower than last week. Conversely, net-short traders have grown by 2.86% from yesterday and 14.98% from the previous week. These fluctuations in trader positioning underscore the dynamic nature of market sentiment and highlight the need for investors to adapt to evolving trends and developments.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY
- Bullish sentiment among retail traders stands at 75%.
- Change in longs: Daily -13%, Weekly -26%
- Change in shorts: Daily 4%, Weekly 12%
- Open interest: Daily 0%, Weekly 0%
The technical landscape indicates a nuanced market sentiment, with potential shifts in trader positioning influencing the future trajectory of USD/JPY prices. Traders must remain vigilant in evolving market dynamics and upcoming economic data releases.