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Interest Rates, Inflation – Dollar Strong Amid Concerns

Interest Rates, Inflation - Dollar Strong Amid Concerns

Asia markets react to US Fed comments on interest rates and inflation. Central bank speeches are ahead. Dollar strength may impact forex and commodities.

Following Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks on Friday, ongoing discussions around interest rates and inflation are poised to be cautiously reacted to by the Asia session. With sentiments echoing those of other policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 appears increasingly remote. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey reveals growing concerns about inflation, unemployment, and interest rates among consumers, adding weight to the inflation narrative.

US Session Recap

Governor Bowman’s comments to Bloomberg News underscored the Fed’s reluctance to consider rate cuts amidst persistent inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for patience given the recent inflationary data.

Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for May indicated a decline in sentiment, reflecting worries about the economic outlook, particularly concerning inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

The dollar index (DXY) initially dipped but recovered ground following the UoM survey release, closing at 105.31. This stabilization followed a period of volatility, indicating market sensitivity to inflation and interest rate expectations.

Asia Session Outlook

As traders digest the US session’s developments, attention turns to forthcoming speeches by FOMC members Jefferson and Mester. Their remarks, expected to align with recent Fed commentary, could reinforce market expectations for sustained interest rates, potentially bolstering the dollar.

Key News Events Today

  • FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks (1:00 pm GMT)
  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks (1:00 pm GMT)

Interest Rates, Inflation – Dollar Strong Amid Concerns

DXY Forecast

Governor Jefferson and President Mester’s speeches may uphold current market sentiments, potentially buoying the dollar. Recent Fed rhetoric suggests that traders anticipate a continuation of the current trajectory, indicating a weak bullish bias for the DXY.

Gold (XAU) Forecast

Like the DXY, gold prices could face headwinds as Jefferson and Mester echo hawkish sentiments. Elevated dollar strength may cap gold’s gains, warranting a weak bearish bias.

Other Currency Forecasts

  • AUD: Weak bearish bias due to dollar strength.
  • NZD: Weak bearish bias if inflation expectations disappoint.
  • JPY: Weak bullish bias as the market awaits potential BoJ actions.
  • EUR: Weak bearish bias amid ECB’s cautious stance.
  • CHF: Weak bullish bias as the market monitors SNB’s policy direction.
  • GBP: Weak bearish bias following BoE’s steady rates.
  • CAD: Medium bullish bias on positive labor market data.

Oil Forecast:

WTI crude oil may experience further pressure if dollar strength persists, indicating a weak bearish bias.

As markets await central bank speeches and monitor economic indicators, uncertainty prevails, shaping trading biases across various asset classes.

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