Market Dynamics’ Impact on Gold Amid Geopolitical Tensions. Gold faces challenges; the Fed’s dovish stance may support prices.
Gold prices experienced a slight downturn on Monday following a significant rally prompted by concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict, which had created a haven demand. However, with no further escalation in the news, the rally subsided, although it remains susceptible to worsening situations in the Middle East.
Market Dynamics’ Impact on Gold
The increase in US real yields has weighed on gold, given its non-interest-bearing nature, as US Treasury yields rose marginally. Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have shifted, indicating a possible peak in the Fed’s hiking cycle. This change in sentiment could support gold prices, especially if weaker US economic data and less aggressive Fed rhetoric continue to reinforce this narrative. Key events to watch include Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speeches, additional Fed speakers, and US retail sales data later in the week.
Regarding technical analysis, the XAU/USD shows the pair respecting the long-term trendline resistance zone, coinciding with the 200-day moving average. External factors, such as the contained nature of the conflict in the Middle East, have led some investors to seek extended opportunities at support levels. However, if the dispute involves other nations, the contagion effect could drive a sharp rise in gold prices.
Current resistance levels are identified at 1950.00, corresponding to the trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average. The 1900.00 level is the 50-day moving average, while 1884.89 and 1858.33 are support levels. According to IG Client Sentiment data, retail traders are predominantly long on gold, with 71% holding long positions, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. Gold prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in US economic and monetary policy, with the potential for significant price movements based on these factors.