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Market Watch: Anticipation for US GDP and Unemployment Claims

US GDP Unemployment Claims

European Markets Await US GDP and Unemployment Claims: Key Indicators Shape Trading Sentiment in Anticipation of Economic Developments.

In the wake of the Asia session, the Dollar Index (DXY) has been a focal point for European traders. DXY fluctuated between 101.90 and 102.60 throughout the week, trending towards the lower bound. Simultaneously, gold prices surged, approaching the $2,050/oz threshold, a level previously unattained in December. Spot gold prices have propelled upward, accompanied by WTI oil climbing above $74.00 per barrel.

As attention shifts to the Europe and US sessions, market participants await the release of the final estimate for third-quarter GDP in the United States, projected to show a robust 5.2% year-over-year growth, a substantial increase from the previous quarter’s 2.1%. A positive GDP figure could provide an uplift for the DXY. On the flip side, analysts anticipate a rise in unemployment claims to 214k, signaling potential concerns about the US labor market and potentially further impacting the DXY during the US session.

Key Events on the Horizon

  • GDP Release (1:30 pm GMT): Eyes are on the final estimate for third-quarter GDP, with expectations of a significant jump to 5.2% YoY, potentially influencing the DXY’s trajectory.
  • Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT): A rise in unemployment claims could signal a weakening US labor market, impacting the DXY’s performance during the US session.

DXY Outlook: Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU) Outlook: Weak, Bullish

Australian Dollar (AUD): A Resilient Comeback?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a sharp pullback but found support around 0.6730, rebounding strongly at the start of the Asia session. The currency is poised to make another attempt at climbing towards 0.6800. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate target at 4.35%, indicating a cautious approach amid concerns about inflation and slower-than-expected progress.

Critical Points for AUD: Medium Bullish Bias

New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Bouncing Back from Overnight Tumble

Following its Pacific neighbor’s trajectory, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faced a decline overnight, reaching as low as 0.6235. Despite the setback, the currency found robust support around 0.6250 and could see upward movement today.

Critical Points for NZD: Weak Bullish Bias

Japanese Yen (JPY): Eyes on BoJ’s Dovish Tone

As Japan prepares to release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, market participants are watching cautiously for an ultra-dovish tone that could potentially trigger a sell-off in the Japanese Yen. If the minutes convey a pessimistic sentiment, USD/JPY, sliding towards 143.00 at the start of the Asia session, may surge towards 145.00.

Critical Points for JPY: Medium Bearish Bias

Market Watch: Anticipation for US GDP and Unemployment Claims

Euro (EUR): Support Found, Potential for Upside

The Euro (EUR) slipped below 1.0950 overnight but stabilized during the Asia session, showing signs of edging higher.

Critical Points for EUR: Medium Bullish Bias

Swiss Franc (CHF): USD/CHF Consolidation Amid Downward Pressures

After falling below the 0.8600 threshold earlier in the week, USD/CHF has consolidated between 0.8600 and 0.8650. Downward pressures persist, and further depreciation below 0.8600 is possible.

Critical Points for CHF: Medium Bearish Bias

British Pound (GBP): CPI Drop Pressures Sterling

The UK’s inflation eased in November, leading to a decline in the Pound (GBP), which fell below 1.2650. Further pressure may persist today.

Critical Points for GBP: Weak Bullish Bias

Canadian Dollar (CAD): Retail Sales Data Could Impact USD/CAD

Canada’s retail sales data, expected to show growth of 0.8% in October, could influence Loonie’s performance against the US dollar (USD/CAD).

Critical Points for CAD: Medium Bearish Bias

Oil: Elevated Prices Despite Inventory Build

Despite unexpected increases in crude oil inventories, oil prices remain elevated due to Red Sea shipping lanes concerns. WTI oil climbed above $75.00 per barrel but dipped to just under $74.00 as Asian markets opened.

Critical Points for Oil: Weak Bullish Bias

As the day unfolds, market participants will closely monitor these key events and trends, with central bank actions and economic data continuing to shape European markets.

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