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New Zealand Dollar Outlook: Currency Pair Trends

New Zealand Dollar Outlook for NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, and AUD/NZD as we analyze their recent price action and trends.

Key Points:

  • NZD/USD holds above channel support, with no clear reversal sign in the downtrend.
  • AUD/NZD remains within its established range, while EUR/NZD’s downside potential appears limited.
  • Analysis of NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, and AUD/NZD price trends and key levels.

New Zealand Dollar Outlook – NZD/USD Holding Above Channel Support

NZD/USD’s decline below the August low of 0.5985 in August keeps the medium-term bias downward. Despite attempting to stay above the lower edge of a downtrend channel since early 2023, the failed July attempt to break past resistance at 0.6375 (the April high) and the 89-week moving average suggests bearishness.

For a reversal of the multi-week downtrend in 2023, NZD/USD must rise above the early September high of 0.6015, potentially opening the path toward 0.6100. To fully reverse the downtrend, it needs to surpass at least the July high of 0.6410. A more significant shift requires a breach of the February high at 0.6540.

EUR/NZD-Limited Downside Potential

EUR/NZD has retraced from strong resistance at the upper edge of an ascending channel since May. This pullback alone doesn’t indicate a reversal of the broader bullish trend, as the sequence of higher highs and higher lows in recent months reinforces the uptrend.

Immediate support is at the April high of 1.8080. Stronger support resides near 1.7825, where the 89-day moving average aligns with the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. The last time the cross was below this converged support was in 2022, implying limited downside potential.

AUD/NZD-Trading in a Range

AUD/NZD hasn’t seen significant changes recently, remaining within a range and mostly near the lower edge of an ascending pitchfork channel established last year. The broader range spans 1.05-1.11, but in recent times, it has narrowed to 1.07-1.09. To initiate a trend, AUD/NZD must break either above 1.11 or below 1.05.

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