BoJ communication confuses markets as USD/JPY softens before the US CPI release; bond market volatility and risk management are crucial amid economic updates.
BUSY WEEK AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED YEAR-END SLUMP
In a bustling week, with three major central banks set to unveil updates on monetary policy and economic forecasts, markets brace for potential year-end fluctuations. Eyes are mainly on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, which could significantly impact the recent USD/JPY sell-off trajectory should it come in lower than anticipated.
USD/JPY Levels Tested: BoJ Caution and Bond Market Volatility
The USD/JPY declined last Thursday, prompted by remarks from senior Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials hinting at an early departure from negative interest rates. However, subsequent BoJ statements expressing little urgency to end negative rates in December led traders to retract bets on a stronger yen.
The current resistance level stands at 146.50, with immediate support at 145. Further down the line, the 200 SMA and 141.50 levels could come into play. As the week unfolds, potential choppiness and volatility loom over the FX markets, emphasizing the imperative for meticulous risk management.
IMPACT OF BOND MARKET VOLATILITY ON USD/JPY
Recent USD/JPY volatility finds its roots in the bond market, experiencing a sharp spike followed by a downturn over the last three days. The potential shift from negative interest rates holds significant implications for global markets, warranting clear official communication. Striking a balance between a sensible approach and resisting the urge to provide specific timelines remains challenging. The focal point this week, however, revolves around the US, with the anticipation of the CPI release and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Additionally, attention toward US retail sales, a crucial indicator of the nation’s economic health, is driven by consumer activity.