Fed’s Waller Speech and US ISM PMI Today

Fed’s Waller speech and US ISM Services PMI headline Thursday as markets watch jobless claims and central bank speakers.

Thursday’s European session brings the final PMI readings for the major Eurozone economies and the UK, alongside the Eurozone PPI report. None of the releases carry enough weight to shift policy expectations at either the ECB or the Bank of England, and the market reaction is likely to remain largely subdued across the board.

The broader policy backdrop, however, continues to draw attention. The ECB enters its upcoming meeting with markets widely pricing in a rate hike, though policymakers look set to signal less appetite for further tightening beyond that point. Markets, on the other hand, continue to price in elevated chances of an additional hike in December, reflecting a gap between official guidance and trader expectations that could generate volatility if the ECB’s tone surprises in either direction.

On the Bank of England front, the central bank looks set to deliver one further rate hike before year-end, with markets currently pricing in a 68% probability of a move in November.

Fed’s Waller Speech and US ISM PMI Today

The American session carries considerably more market-moving potential. Fed’s Waller delivers remarks on the economic outlook at 12:30 GMT, and his speeches have historically served as a reliable leading indicator for Fed policy direction. Waller was among the first to adopt a dovish bias in 2025, a shift that eventually preceded three rate cuts. He turned neutral in May of this year, refocusing his attention on inflation, and at his last appearance he leaned more hawkish, stating that monthly inflation gains had become his primary metric.

Waller is actively seeking reasons to avoid another hike but has made clear he will vote for an increase if the data warrants it. That makes next week’s US CPI report particularly consequential for assessing where his stance lands heading into the next decision.

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to hold steady at 54.1, matching the prior reading. The S&P Global Services PMI separately pointed to the fastest output growth in over four years, suggesting the sector retains solid momentum. Even so, the ISM figure is unlikely to alter the Fed’s calculus meaningfully, given that policymakers remain singularly focused on inflation at this stage of the cycle.

Weekly Jobless Claims round out the data slate. Initial Claims are expected at 205K against a prior reading of 203K, while Continuing Claims are forecast at 1,783K versus 1,778K previously. The labour market continues to hold up well, and the figures are unlikely to move markets unless a significant upside surprise emerges that raises broader concerns about employment conditions.

Central Bank Speakers

Thursday brings a busy lineup of central bank appearances. Fed’s Waller opens at 12:30 GMT, followed by BoE’s Pill at 15:00 GMT. Fed’s Hammack then speaks at 19:00 GMT, with Fed’s Goolsbee closing the schedule at 19:55 GMT. Waller and Hammack both hold hawkish voter status, making their remarks the most market-sensitive of the four. Any fresh commentary on the inflation outlook, rate trajectory, or the weight of upcoming data will attract close scrutiny from traders positioning ahead of next week’s CPI release.

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